A series of thunderstorm systems in the Caribbean are on the verge of strengthening into Hurricane Helene, with the National Hurricane Center (NHC) currently designating the system as “Potential Tropical Storm Nine.” Although the storm hasn’t fully developed yet, warnings have been issued indicating it could make landfall as a major hurricane. Hurricane and tropical storm warnings are already in effect for parts of Cuba and Mexico, while the Florida Keys and the Dry Tortugas region are under tropical storm watches.
In anticipation of the storm, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has declared a state of emergency for 41 of the state’s 67 counties. Officials have cautioned that the expected winds and rainfall could lead to widespread power outages from fallen trees and gusty winds, as well as significant flooding across the state.
The system is currently traversing the far western Caribbean Sea and is expected to produce heavy rain in Central America, Mexico, Cuba, and Jamaica as it develops into a tropical storm. While the storm’s path may change, the NHC indicates it is currently tracking north toward the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico, which will likely intensify the storm. Forecasts suggest that Helene could reach Category 3 status as it approaches the Gulf Coast.
Regardless of where it makes landfall in the U.S., Helene is expected to bring storm surges, damaging winds, rough seas, and rip currents to much of the region. The NHC predicts that the storm will hit the Florida Panhandle early Thursday morning, but officials are advising residents from Florida’s Gulf Coast to eastern Louisiana to prepare for severe weather this week.
Recent data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) indicates that Atlantic Ocean temperatures are currently 1-2 degrees above average, with mean sea surface temperatures 2-3 degrees higher than the long-term average from 1991 to 2020. These warmer waters contribute to the formation of more powerful storms. Experts believe that human-induced climate change is accelerating this trend, leading to an increased frequency of major hurricanes.
According to the Centers for Climate and Energy Solutions, warmer sea surface temperatures not only enhance tropical storm wind speeds but also raise the potential for greater damage upon landfall. Over the past several decades, there has been a noted increase in the number of major hurricanes, while smaller hurricanes have become less common. NOAA’s modeling predicts a rise in Category 4 and 5 hurricanes alongside increased wind speeds.
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